IHS estimates the current OLED lighting market (at the panel level) at $2.7 million in 2014, and says that the market will grow tenfold by 2020 - to reach $26 million. IHS expects panel prices to drop 40% in the next several years, but OLEDs will still not be able to compete with LED lighting, and this is why it does not expect OLED lighting to really emerge as a mass market in the near future.
IHS is rather pessimistic, and other analysts see panel prices dropping much more quickly and volumes rise at a much more dramatic rate. IDTechEx for example see a $200 million panel market in 2019 that will grow to $1.9 billion in 2025. Cintelliq sees OLED competing with LEDs in 2016, and 500 million 100x100 mm OLED lighting panels produced in 2023.
